Dynamic systems modeling of land use change by oil palm cultivation for biodiesel production in Colombia

Abstract

Increased demand for palm oil production has led to direct and indirect change in land use by influencing the balance of carbon capture mainly by switching from forests to land with palm crops. Because Colombia is the first palm oil producer in Latin America and the fifth in the world, it is necessary to analyze the sustainability of production at the growing stage. To this end, a dynamic modeling of systems with historical data was carried out between 2012-2018, thus concluded that palm oil yield should be increased, and the main rate of land use change should be from degraded land to palm land, not those involving livestock land. In addition, the government must increase the amount of land reforested annually by at least 60%. Implementing such alternatives does not affect the economy of the palm sector, being a sustainable alternative without generating losses for the industry.